The extension of the natural gas price cap scheme, in force until April 1, 2026, has gone beyond the role of social protection and has become a mechanism that generates arbitrage and economic advantages for the so-called „smart guys”, distorting competition and real price signals in the market, according to an analysis signed by Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
Romania is no longer, in fact, in a gas price cap debate. It has already been decided. The scheme is in force until April 1, 2026, with a cap of 0.31 lei/kWh for household consumers, and public messages are already talking about further extensions. For the market, this is an unequivocal signal: the price of gas remains under the remote control of politics and the „smart boys”. And when the price is controlled, it is no longer just about social protection, but about power, redistribution and influence
says Dumitru Chisăliță, in a statement quoted by Agerpres.
In his opinion, the official position is appealing, as the state „protects the population from shocks, keeps the facts under control and avoids a new social crisis”, but in reality, „the cap is much more than a shield for the consumer”.
„Worse, the cap postpones facing the truth about the Romanian gas market. Without a free price, we cannot see who is efficient, who is fair, who is cheating and who is investing. ANRE, competition - all remain in the shadows as long as the price is set administratively”, says the source.
„The GEO 6/2025 scheme works on a „recognized cost” basis - a weighted average of these, not the actual cost of each MWh. Those who know how to construct their portfolio, application periods and legal structure may end up being compensated more than the actual cost of gas. The difference between „actual cost” and „recognized cost” is not an error. It is validated speculation. It is compounded by settlement delays. Large suppliers with financing and access to banks can hold out. Small suppliers are suffocated and forced to sell or exit the market. The cap thus becomes a mechanism to consolidate the market in favor of the big players”explained the AEI President.
He argues that the cap should lower prices but, in reality, a cap becomes a psychological market price threshold.
„If all suppliers charge „below the ceiling” but close to it, the real price is no longer the price dictated by competition, but the agreed price. When the Government says that „there are offers below the ceiling”, it implicitly recognizes that the ceiling no longer protects, but only normalizes a price level”, the document adds.
According to the AEI president, under these conditions, the politicians gain social appeasement and populism on the subject and the large suppliers gain guaranteed volume, minimal commercial risk and protected margins. At the same time, the consumer loses because he remains trapped in a managed price.
„Traders gain from opacity and arbitrage windows. The consumer loses because they are trapped in a managed price. Some suppliers lose because they cannot finance the scheme. The market loses because the real price signal is destroyed”added Chisăliță.
According to him, there are already suppliers who have bought gas for the period after April 1, 2026 at prices of 151-157 lei/MWh.
„These contracts cannot be stopped. If capping continues, it means that the state will make up the difference (157 -120 = 37 lei/MWh), which will be compensated by public money. In other words, the state budget will cover the contracts made at high prices, and the money will flow freely to importers, producers, suppliers... At the same time, a large part of the gas that should come after April 1, 2026, if the capping continues, has already been sold (industrial consumers, suppliers, traders), i.e. some of the gas is no longer there to support the capping scheme. If the cap, which contains the legal obligation for producers to sell at 120 lei/MWh to cover the gas consumption of the population and non-residential consumers, continues, they would have to buy gas from imports at higher prices and sell it at a loss. It is a socialization of loss”says the source.
Thus, the gas cap is no longer simply social policy. „It is a power scheme that freezes consumer behavior, shifts costs to the budget and creates wide gaps between the „real cost” and the „price cap”. It is in these spaces that speculation is born - and it is where the „smart boys” inevitably thrive," said AEI president.