The Government's intention to introduce an administrative gas price for the population creates a well-known economic mechanism: the costs that will no longer be paid by households will inevitably be passed on to industry, says an analysis by the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
”As shown by the analysis conducted by the Intelligent Energy Association (The impact of ”administered price”, Analysis of the share of energy costs in food), this type of intervention does not eliminate costs, but redistributes them, with direct effects on the final prices of consumer goods.
”Estimates indicate a possible increase in gas prices for industry up to 15% from 2025 levels. In an economy where the food sector is heavily dependent on energy, such a development cannot be without consequences. The additional costs will inevitably be reflected in the price of food, with an estimated average impact of around 51TPTP3T from this component alone”says Dumitru Chisăliță, AEI president.
Available forecasts (European Central Bank) point to a moderation of inflation in the euro area, where the headline rate is expected to fall to 1.6-2.01 TP3T and food inflation to around 2.4-2.71 TP3T. Energy as a whole could even have a neutral or negative impact on European inflation.
”But Romania is starting from a much weaker position. After a total inflation rate of 8.6% in 2025, the National Bank of Romania forecasts a decline in 2026, with an overall rate of around 3.7% at the end of the year. However, this value masks major differences between the components of inflation. Food remains highly sensitive to energy costs and a rapid reduction is unlikely”.
Natural gas and electricity are reflected in food prices through three key channels: industrial processing (ovens, steam, heating), transport and storage (cold chains, logistics) and agricultural inputs (fertilizers, greenhouse heating, grain drying). When one of these channels is affected, the effect multiplies throughout the production chain.
In this context, an AEI estimate shows that food inflation in Romania in 2026, in a scenario with gas for industry more expensive by 15%, could reach approx. 7.5-9.01TPTP3T. In other words, 2026 is likely to bring even higher food inflation than 2025.
The food inflation differential in Romania compared to the European Union would thus become even more pronounced, from a ratio of 2.39 times above the EU average in 2025, Romania could reach 3.1-3.3 times above the European average in 2026. It is not just a question of prices, but of economic competitiveness, social equity and policy coherence.
”If food is one of the most sensitive components of living standards, then food inflation can no longer be treated as a secondary indicator. In the absence of decisions that take into account the knock-on effects of administrative interventions, Romania risks to remain not only the political champion of high food prices, but also a clear example of how the costs of misguided hidden costs inevitably end up on the consumer's plate”concludes the AEI analyst.