Romanian investors begin to recalibrate their portfolios in 2026, reducing exposure focused on the US technology sector and shifting towards sectors considered more stable, such as energy, industrials and commodities, according to an analysis by Investimental.
The company sees growing interest in real-economy linked instruments and geographic diversification across the Nova platform amid high volatility and uncertainties about inflation and interest rates in the US.
After two years dominated by the performance of Big Tech and the excitement around Artificial Intelligence, the beginning of 2026 globally marks a visible rotation of capital towards traditional sectors of the economy. The record investment in Artificial Intelligence, estimated at around 500 billion dollars in 2026, raises questions about the sustainability of long-term returns.
According to the most recent FactSet report, the technology sector posted a net margin of nearly 30% in the last quarter of 2025, the second highest in the S&P 500 index, and estimates for 2026 point to a profit growth rate of more than 30%. Against this backdrop, the market debate is mainly focused on the sustainability of future margins in an environment characterized by massive investment and accelerated competition for the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
At the same time, sectors linked to the real economy are benefiting from higher oil prices and increased interest in defensive assets such as gold. Energy, raw materials, industrials and consumer staples are the best performers since the beginning of the year, while technology is going through a period of consolidation.
For example, the Xtrackers MSCI MSCI World Energy UCITS, a fund with assets of around €1.2 billion and predominantly exposed to US oil companies, has returned almost 19% in euros and around 20% in dollars since the start of the year, a performance supported by the appreciation of oil prices by more than 12%.
The current rotation favors the energy, natural resources and industrials sectors, which have a high structural weight in many emerging markets. From this perspective, they can act as a natural extension of exposure to the traditional US economy.
For Romanian investors, diversifying exposure, whether through sector or regional ETFs, is a natural evolution in a context where excessive focus on a single growth driver, such as US technology, entails additional risks.
„As uncertainties about the trajectory of inflation, the direction of interest rates and changes in US monetary policy intensify, investors tend to reduce exposure to perceived overvalued segments and favor companies with more stable cash flows. Diversification remains essential in a volatile environment. We are seeing a growing interest in more balanced allocations that combine traditional US economics with selective emerging market exposures,” says Vivien Ciuhan, Investment Analyst.
Historically, in periods of uncertainty and rising risk aversion, the Dow Jones has performed relatively better than technology-focused indices. Between 2000-2007, the Dow reached new all-time highs, while the Nasdaq 100 remained well below its 2000 peak.
The index's structure, skewed towards mature companies in industrials, financials, healthcare and energy, but also including established technology, makes it less dependent on tech-specific multiples expansion. In 2026, appreciation in energy and industrials stocks underpins the index's advance.
At the same time, emerging markets are returning to investors' attention amid monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar.
Goldman Sachs estimates point to a total return in excess of 15% for emerging markets in 2026, underpinned by China's export resilience and a weakening dollar. At the same time, currency volatility and interest rate dynamics remain relevant variables for this asset class.
In an environment where the trajectory of inflation, the direction of interest rates and geopolitical developments continue to generate uncertainty, capital churn across sectors and regions reflects a stage of realignment in global markets, with a focus on diversification and reducing over-concentration.