Romania is entering a new phase of fuel price hikes, and the alarm signal comes from the most sensitive area of the economy: diesel. The psychological threshold of 9 lei per liter has already been exceeded and market dynamics show that the level of 10 lei is no longer an exaggerated hypothesis, but a possible scenario in the immediate future, says the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
”The accelerated increase in diesel is not by chance. It reflects the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of the conflict over Iran on global energy markets. When such crises arise, the first fuel to react is diesel. The reason is simple: Europe, including Romania, has a structural deficit of diesel and depends more on imports for this product than for gasoline,” says Dumitru Chisăliță, AEI President.
”At the same time, there is a technical delay in the transmission of oil market price increases to the pump. Refineries process crude oil purchased a few weeks in advance, and this creates a temporary window in which gasoline remains relatively stable, while diesel is already starting to reflect market tensions. Hence the widening gap between the two prices.
In the short term, this gap will continue to grow. Diesel will remain the fuel under pressure as it is essential for freight transportation, agriculture and logistics. Demand for it is rigid: trucks can't switch to another fuel overnight and the real savings depend on every liter consumed,” says Chisăliță.
This development has much wider consequences than simply increasing the cost at the pump. Diesel is, in fact, the fuel of inflation. Any increase in price is quickly passed on in the price of transportation, then in the cost of food, building materials and almost everything else in the economy. When diesel goes up sharply, the whole cost structure of the economy starts to move upwards.
”This is why the 9 lei threshold is not just a symbolic figure. It marks the entry into an area where the pressure on the economy becomes visible to everyone: transporters, farmers, traders and ultimately consumers.
In the very short term we may see a paradoxical situation: diesel fuel rising rapidly while gasoline remains temporarily cheaper. But this balance is fragile. As refiners start to process crude oil already bought at higher prices, gasoline will catch up.
In reality, the question is no longer whether we will see 10 lei per liter fuels, but how quickly it will happen and how long this market phase will last. AEI's estimate is that by the end of March we will have diesel at 10 lei/liter.
Energy crises have a clear pattern: they come suddenly, they cascade, and they are felt first in the fuels that drive the economy. And diesel is exactly that fuel,” concludes the AEI analyst.