Cristina Chiriac, CONAF: A possible accelerated contraction of transport and logistics would represent a systemic risk

The accelerated rise in fuel prices is no longer a mere market fluctuation, but indicates systemic pressures on the real economy, affecting costs, cash flows and supply chains, as the transport and logistics sector, with a contribution of about 6.5% to GDP, is directly exposed, warns the National Confederation for Women Entrepreneurship (CONAF).

„The accelerated evolution of fuel prices in recent days can no longer be treated as a one-off market fluctuation, but represents the beginning of a systemic pressure on the real economy, with direct effects on the competitiveness of Romanian companies and on the general level of prices. The signal sent on March 12 by the Patronatul Industriei de Transport și Logistică ASTRA, member of CONAF, on the risk of destabilization of the transport sector is confirmed today by market developments, which indicate an accelerated increase in fuel costs and an amplification of the pressure on companies' cash flows”, reads the statement, according to Agerpres.

At the same time, CONAF representatives emphasize that this development is not an isolated national phenomenon, but part of a global context marked by volatile energy markets.

„The key difference, however, lies in the way European economies choose to absorb this shock: while some countries have implemented flexible fiscal adjustment mechanisms or targeted support schemes for strategic sectors, in Romania the pressure is almost entirely transferred to the real economy. In the absence of cushioning instruments adapted to this context, the impact on companies becomes faster, deeper and harder to recover, amplifying the risks of loss of competitiveness and cost spillovers in the economic chain”, reads the press release.

According to the cited source, Romanian carriers operating on international routes are already facing concrete limitations in fuel supply, including the impossibility to refuel in some countries in the region.

„This reduces the ability to optimize costs, distorts the conditions of competition and increases the financial pressure on a sector that is essential for the functioning of the economy”, notes the organization.

In an economy where road freight transport alone contributes more than 3.5% to GDP and supports the functioning of supply chains, any steep rise in fuel costs does not remain isolated but cascades through all sectors of the economy - from production and distribution to retail and final consumption, the paper said.

„The transport and logistics sector is not just a cost transmission channel, but a structural pillar of the Romanian economy. With a cumulative contribution of approximately 6.5% to GDP and over 250,000 employees, any major imbalance in this sector generates widespread economic effects, with a direct impact on the labor market, the stability of supply chains and the pace of economic growth. A possible collapse or accelerated contraction in this sector would not only represent a sectoral difficulty, but a systemic risk, capable of affecting the functioning of the whole economy”, said Cristina Chiriac, president of CONAF, quoted in the press release.

CONAF underlines that the current impact is not generated by the price level alone, but by the cumulative effect of several factors acting simultaneously on the business environment: the volatility of international energy markets, existing fiscal pressure, additional regulatory costs and the imbalance between payment and collection times, especially in the high turnover sectors such as transport and logistics.

In this context, small and medium-sized companies are the most exposed, with the lowest shock absorption capacity and the most vulnerable cash flows. In the absence of rapid coping mechanisms, cost pressures risk turning into a domino effect, with an impact on investment, employment and economic stability.

At the same time, CONAF believes that the public debate must go beyond the simplified logic of intervention or non-intervention and focus on a key question: who absorbs this economic shock - the public budget or the real economy?.

In this regard, the Confederation calls for a coherent, calibrated and targeted economic response for sectors with systemic impact, based on the following directions: transparency on fuel price formation and monitoring of market developments; temporary and targeted measures for sectors with a direct multiplier effect on the economy, such as transport, agriculture and distribution.

Other directions include: functional support mechanisms that respond to the reality of cash flows in the economy, not just to theoretical models; exploring flexible fiscal instruments, including adaptive mechanisms to evolving energy markets; and institutionalizing a real and rapid dialogue between authorities and business.

CONAF does not support populist solutions or measures that may distort the market in the long term. At the same time, the Confederation emphasizes that inaction at a time of major external pressure transfers the full cost to companies and consumers, amplifying economic risks, the statement added.

„At times like these, economic leadership is not about spectacular reactions, but about quick, balanced and committed decisions. It is not just the price at the pump that is at stake. What is at stake is the stability of an economy where entrepreneurs have already been carrying the burden alone for too long”said Cristina Chiriac.

The National Confederation for Women's Entrepreneurship (CONAF) advocates for more effective dialogue with the authorities, working together to develop public policies that lead to sustainable economic growth and supports entrepreneurs by recognizing their merits. CONAF was born out of the need to create a modern, sustainable and equitable entrepreneurial culture, not only for female entrepreneurship, but also for the business environment as a whole. CONAF is made up of 31 branches, 3 federations, 16 employers' federations, 55 associations and 15,000 companies, over 245,000 employees.