The European Commission has negatively revised the economic growth outlook for the European Union and Romania, in the context of an energy shock that is fueling inflation and eroding the competitiveness of European economies.
For Romania, the European Commission has projected the sharpest decline in economic growth among all member states: from 1.11% to 0.11%, a drop of one percentage point, which highlights the lack of competitiveness at the local, regional, and European levels.
This adjustment also reflects the deterioration of the European economic environment, especially the weak performance of Germany, Romania's main trading partner, as well as internal economic problems and the ongoing fiscal adjustment process, according to Concordia Confederation officials.
In addition, the estimated inflation rate for the end of 2026 in Romania has been revised to 7.1%, up from 5.91% in the previous forecast, placing Romania significantly above the European average and above the National Bank of Romania’s recent forecast of 5.51%.
Countries such as Hungary, Bulgaria, and Poland are experiencing significant economic growth of over 21% year-over-year, despite much lower inflation.
”This is a strong wake-up call, and Romania urgently needs a stable government and urgent measures for economic revitalization,” say Confederation officials.
The only positive development noted by the Commission is that the budget deficit forecast for the end of the year remains at 6.21% of GDP, in line with the agreed target, which signals stability in public finances and the fiscal adjustment path.
The Concordia Employers' Confederation points out that the domestic business environment is simultaneously absorbing two shocks: an external one, caused by the global energy crisis, and an internal one, driven by the fiscal adjustment process. The combination of projected economic growth of 0.11% and inflation of 7.1% is exerting real pressure on the competitiveness of Romanian companies and on citizens’ purchasing power.
Maintaining the budget deficit target at 6.21% of GDP is a commitment that Concordia supports as a necessary element of predictability and macroeconomic stability.
Spain's example, the only major European economy with an upwardly revised forecast, demonstrates that access to energy at competitive costs represents a structural advantage with a direct impact on economic growth.
The European Commission's report also highlights a series of structural issues that need to be addressed in Romania as well, in order to support economic growth.
The EU labor market is in a fragile balance, marked by a decoupling between the normalization of labor supply and unemployment adjustment. Demographic changes and improved matching efficiency between demand and supply have seemingly mitigated the weakness in demand, but this situation remains vulnerable to external shocks. In Romania, this fragility is even more pronounced, with one of the lowest employment rates in the EU, and the official unemployment rate underestimating the true extent of labor underutilization. Consequently, the economy remains disproportionately exposed to the risk of structural unemployment in the event of a decline in demand.
The uneven adoption of artificial intelligence at the EU level risks widening economic disparities, both within the labor market and between regions. AI use is more widespread in economies with robust innovation ecosystems, and Romania consistently ranks among „innovating emerging economies” with extremely low digital skills and limited technology adoption by companies. In this context, the AI adoption gap is twofold: external, compared to more advanced EU economies, and internal, between population groups and firms, risking the consolidation of inequalities and limiting Romania's ability to benefit from the productive potential of artificial intelligence.
EU investments in energy resilience are starting to pay off. Efforts to diversify supply sources, decarbonize, and reduce energy consumption have made the EU economy better prepared to absorb new shocks. This direction must be strengthened in Romania as well, by accelerating investments in new energy production and distribution capacities and in energy efficiency measures, so that local industry can benefit from similar conditions of competitiveness, instead of being exposed to high energy costs in an already difficult economic context.
”Concordia calls on European institutions and Romanian authorities to address these structural vulnerabilities through coherent and coordinated policies that support competitiveness, employment, innovation, and economic resilience, and to actively contribute to identifying and implementing the best solutions for Romania’s economy,” say officials from the Confederation.
COMPARATIVE TABLE WITH OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION
| Economic growth | Inflation | Budget deficit | ||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 | |
| Bulgaria | 2.5 (2.7) | 2.2 (2.1) | 4.2 (2.9) | 2.6 (3.7) | -4.1 (-2.7) | -4.3 (-4.3) |
| Czech Republic | 1.8 (1.9) | 2.4 (2.4) | 2.7 (2.1) | 2.8 (2.4) | -2.8 (-2.1) | -2.9 (-2.2) |
| Greece | 1.8 (2.2) | 1.6 (1.7) | 3.7 (2.3) | 2.4 (2.4) | 0.8 (0.3) | 0.6 (0.0) |
| Poland | 3.5 (3.5) | 2.8(2.8) | 3.6 (2.9) | 2.9 (2.7) | -6.5 (-6.3) | -6.3 (6.1) |
| Romania | 0.1 (1.1) | 2.3 (2.1) | 7 (5.9) | 3.7 (3.8) | -6.2 (-6.2) | -5.8 (5.9) |
| Slovakia | 0.8 (1.0) | 1.5 (1.4) | 4.3 (4.1) | 3.2 (3.1) | -4.6 (-4.6) | -5.4 (-5.3) |
| Hungary | 1.8 (2.3) | 2.1 (2.1) | 3.2(3.6) | 3.1 (3.5) | -6.2 (-5.1) | -5.8 (-5.1) |
Note: The values in parentheses represent E.C.'s previous estimates, as published in the Autumn 2025 forecast