{"id":6517,"date":"2026-04-27T16:17:54","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T14:17:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/?p=6517"},"modified":"2026-04-27T16:18:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T14:18:01","slug":"autoritatile-ignora-riscul-real-ca-romania-sa-ramana-in-frig-la-iarna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/en\/autoritatile-ignora-riscul-real-ca-romania-sa-ramana-in-frig-la-iarna\/","title":{"rendered":"Authorities are ignoring the real risk of Romania being left in the cold this winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A \u201eregulatory\u201d blow applied with an axe - Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 leads to the real risk that Romania will be left without gas during cold periods precisely when it needs it most, claims Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, president of the Smart Energy Association (AEI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 (January 26, 2026) promises political virtue: \u201ewe're cutting off Russian gas.\u201d It sounds good. The problem is that, in practice, it's a piece of regulatory engineering made for headlines and press conferences, but which could have the opposite effect in countries on the edge of the grid \u2013 including Romania: instability, volatility, market panic, and vulnerability during peak demand, claims the expert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The harsh reality is that the EU has reduced Russia, but not \u201estructurally\u201d replaced it.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rusia nu mai livreaz\u0103 \u201e40%+\u201d din gazul UE ca \u00een 2021, livr\u0103rile au cobor\u00e2t la circa 11% din importurile UE de gaz prin conducte \u00een 2025, iar dac\u0103 lu\u0103m \u00een considerare \u0219i LNG, Rusia este la un nivel de cca 17% din importurile totale de gaze ale UE \u00een 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this doesn't mean Europe has become immune. It simply means the EU has \u201epatched up\u201d with LNG, reduced consumption, and more expensive imports, and the cost of security has been shifted to prices and supply risk, especially for states without direct access to LNG terminals and with limited interconnections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Romania fits exactly into this category; it can do relatively well during a mild winter, but during a harsh winter with peak consumption, it becomes dependent on regional flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Regulation 2026\/261, in short, establishes rules for the operation of energy systems with a high penetration of renewable energy sources. It can be dangerous for the \u201enetwork edge\u201d because it shifts the responsibility for grid stability from traditional large power plants to distributed energy resources, which can be less predictable and harder to control. This can lead to imbalances and disruptions in the grid, especially at the periphery where resources may be more dispersed and less robustly connected.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The regulation introduces staggered bans and a \u201ephased shutdown\u201d logic for Russian imports, including through LNG and pipelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Commission's implementation guidance explicitly states that no temporary exceptions are granted for imports of Russian LNG or gas based on contracts concluded or amended after June 17, 2025, and for these \u201enew\/adjusted\u201d contracts, the prohibition applies from March 18, 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the key, the regulation doesn't just hit Russia, it hits response time.<br>During peak consumption, gas security is played out in hours and days, not in \u201ereporting streams,\u201d \u201echecks,\u201d \u201econtractual compliance,\u201d and \u201elegal frameworks.\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In Romania, the risk is the peak consumption, not the annual average.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Romania, the real discussion isn't \u201edo we import a lot, all year round?\u201d. It's: what do you do when your balance breaks in January, during a week of frost, and you need a quick top-up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The regulation introduces three vulnerabilities for Romania:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fast import is becoming administratively\/legally impossible. With Regulation 2026\/261, you have a large \u201egray\u201d risk zone: origins, contracts, intermediaries, checks \u2013 exactly the perfect ingredients for bottlenecks, delays, and commercial disputes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It depends on the region \u2013 and the region has its own games. When Romania needs to import \u201eat the top,\u201d the import comes through corridors and neighbors. And if the neighbors have an interest, they can create a \u201eregional premium\u201d and squeeze the Romanian market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The infrastructure is still under development. Transgaz has explicit projects to strengthen capacities and corridors (\u201eVertical Corridor\u201d), with timelines pushing real benefits to 2027\u20132028. This means that in the 2026\u20132027 window, you are still in a technical transition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hypocrisy of waivers and the risk of \u201ewashed Russian gas\u201d being resold at a premium<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The EU sells morality (\u201estop Russia\u201d), but in practice accepts exceptions and asymmetric transitions, which create:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>two-speed approaches;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>re-export\/re-labeling incentive ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Speculative opportunities in the regional corridor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The case of Slovakia and Hungary is already politically explosive. The Slovak and Hungarian governments have even announced legal action against the ban, calling it \u201eenergy suicide,\u201d although they were given a timeline for the bans (including LNG by the end of 2026 and via pipelines by September 30, 2027, with a possible extension until November 1, 2027).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this environment, the risk for Romania increases compared to the previously outlined scenarios, because:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>if \u201epreferential\u201d volumes appear in the region, they will go to countries where there is political\/commercial leverage;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>and even if there is \u201edisguised Russian gas\u201d (through mixing, hubs, intermediaries), Romania may be left with high prices and the risk of non-delivery when it needs gas the most.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The market effect of high volatility and panic amounts to economic blackmail, even without Russia.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even though Russia's share has decreased, the European market remains sensitive. According to the IEA, the EU's dependence on gas imports has increased, as has its vulnerability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This translates in practice to a cynical mechanism:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The ban on Russian gas and the rigidity of gas contracts bring a greater perceived risk in Europe.;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher perceived risk = higher forward prices;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher forward prices = higher industrial costs;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher industrial costs = social and political pressure and consumption cuts (\u201ewhere possible\u201d) (industry), so that social unrest doesn't explode.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This means: \u201edecoupling\u201d from Russia can, in the short term, produce a form of internal economic blackmail \u2013 through the price and scarcity of gas, not necessarily from Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In Romania, the provisions of the Regulation can turn a week of cold into an acute crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a realistic scenario (prolonged frost, high consumption, tense regional flows), the following situation can occur:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is cold and rapid import is necessary for balancing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The regional market is expensive and limited in available volumes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Appears \u201evolume\u201d by region, but with risk of origin\/contract.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Suppliers are becoming cautious (they don't want to violate Regulation 2026\/261).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The decision moves to attorneys and procedures, not dispatch.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And then it doesn't matter how good the regulation sounds. Only one thing matters: <strong>continuity of delivery<\/strong> and <strong>payment at any price asked<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Regulation 2026\/261 is a security policy that can produce insecurity.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 is, by intention, a geopolitical weapon. In implementation, it risks being a boomerang:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>rigid<\/strong> instead of being \u201ecrisis-aware\u201d;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>procedural<\/strong> instead of being \u201eoperational\u201d;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>moralizer<\/strong> instead of being \u201einfrastructural\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Romania, the danger isn't \u201eRussia cuts off our gas\u201d (that's already internalized). The danger is that the EU <strong>build a ban without a safety net <\/strong>in which to interconnect, access capacities, LNG, sufficient storage, emergency rules that actually work quickly).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What Romania Should Demand from the EU \u2013 Unreservedly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Emergency operational clauses<\/strong>Short, clear, ex-ante procedures for peak balancing imports (not after you've entered a crisis).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Regional anti-speculation mechanism<\/strong>transparency on flows and penalties for manipulation (otherwise \u201esolidarity\u201d remains poetry).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Infrastructure acceleration<\/strong> (vertical corridor, RO\u2013BG, internal reinforcements) treated as a national security project, not an \u201einvestment project.\u201d.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Traceability rules that do not block the system<\/strong>If origin verification takes longer than a frost snap, you've built a bureaucratic bomb.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Brussels, Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 is presented as an act of European sovereignty: the gradual phasing out of natural gas imports from Russia, preparations for phasing out Russian oil, and strengthening the monitoring of energy dependencies. Politically, it sounds impeccable. But in the technical reality of energy systems, especially in Eastern Europe, this regulation risks becoming the exact opposite of its intention, an accelerator of vulnerability during peak consumption moments. Romania does not have an annual structural dependence problem. Its problem is the winter peak. And regulations do not heat radiators.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O lovitur\u0103 \u201ereglementar\u0103\u201d aplicat\u0103 cu toporul &#8211; Regulamentul (UE) 2026\/261 duce la riscul real ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 gaze \u00een perioadele de ger exact c\u00e2nd are mai mare nevoie, sus\u021bine Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI). Regulamentul (UE) 2026\/261 (26 ianuarie 2026) promite o virtute politic\u0103: \u201et\u0103iem gazul rusesc\u201d. Sun\u0103 bine. Problema e<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-energie"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O lovitur\u0103 \u201ereglementar\u0103\u201d aplicat\u0103 cu toporul - Regulamentul (UE) 2026\/261 duce la riscul real ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 gaze \u00een perioadele de ger exact c\u00e2nd are mai mare nevoie, sus\u021bine Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI).\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Alexandru Popescu\"\/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/en\/autoritatile-ignora-riscul-real-ca-romania-sa-ramana-in-frig-la-iarna\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 5.0.4\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"industrynews.ro - 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