{"id":6995,"date":"2026-06-08T09:44:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T07:44:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/?p=6995"},"modified":"2026-06-08T09:57:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T07:57:37","slug":"cu-cat-ar-putea-scadea-pretul-gazelor-naturale-dupa-inceperea-exploatarii-gazelor-din-marea-neagra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/en\/cu-cat-ar-putea-scadea-pretul-gazelor-naturale-dupa-inceperea-exploatarii-gazelor-din-marea-neagra\/","title":{"rendered":"Cu c\u00e2t ar putea sc\u0103dea pre\u021bul gazelor naturale dup\u0103 \u00eenceperea exploat\u0103rii gazelor din Marea Neagr\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">E plauzibil ca, dup\u0103 \u00eenceputul produc\u021biei \u00een proiectul Neptun Deep (\u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 2027), s\u0103 apar\u0103 o presiune descendent\u0103 asupra pre\u021bului gazului \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u2014 mai ales pe partea de costuri \u015fi ofert\u0103 intern\u0103. Totu\u015fi, nu este garantat c\u0103 pre\u0163ul consumatorului final (gospod\u0103rie) va sc\u0103dea\u2013 depinde de foarte mul\u021bi factori (cerere, reglementare, infrastructur\u0103, taxare, pre\u0163uri de import), sus\u021bine Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O estimare care ia \u00een considerare c\u0103 cererea \u0219i\/sau oferta nu explodeaz\u0103 datorit\u0103 altor motive, ar putea aduce <strong>o reducere moderat\u0103 a pre\u0163urilor engross cu 5-20% fa\u0163\u0103 de nivelul din prezent<\/strong>, pe termen mediu (2027-2028).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exist\u0103 mai mul\u021bi factori care pot determina ca exploatarea gazelor naturale offshore \u00een zona Marea Neagr\u0103, \u00een special prin proiectul Neptun Deep (Rom\u00e2nia), ar putea avea un impact asupra pre\u021bului gazelor dup\u0103 anul 2027 \u2014 dar \u0219i multe incertitudini care fac dificil\u0103 o predic\u021bie clar\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De ce ar putea sc\u0103dea pre\u021bul gazelor \u00een Rom\u00e2nia:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Cre\u015ftere semnificativ\u0103 a produc\u0163iei de gaze \u00een Rom\u00e2nia:<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>se preconizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 Neptun Deep va \u00eencepe produc\u021bia \u00een 2027 \u0219i va ad\u0103uga circa 8 mld mc\/an;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>produc\u021bia intern\u0103 de gaze ar putea aproape s\u0103 se dubleze p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een anul 2030 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, pe fondul unei cereri interne de gaze care va r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een jurul valorii de 10-11 mld mc\/an;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>o ofert\u0103 mai mare de gaz intern poate, \u00een teorie, s\u0103 reduc\u0103 dependen\u021ba de importuri (care deseori sunt mai costisitoare) \u0219i astfel s\u0103 influen\u021beze \u00een jos pre\u021burile pe pia\u021ba intern\u0103.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Conectivitate \u0219i infrastructur\u0103 bun\u0103:<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rom\u00e2nia \u0219i a extins re\u021belele de gaz pentru a prelua volumul offshore de gaz<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>o pia\u0163\u0103 mai integrat\u0103 (cu export, concuren\u0163\u0103, posibil mai multe surse) reduce costurile logistice \u015fi de tranzac\u0163ie, ceea ce poate contribui la pre\u0163uri mai competitive.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De ce nu e garantat c\u0103 <strong>pre\u021bul gazelor va sc\u0103dea<\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cererea intern\u0103 \u015fi extern\u0103<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>dac\u0103 <strong>cererea intern\u0103 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia cre\u0219te<\/strong> (de exemplu prin noi centrale pe gaz, \u00eenlocuirea c\u0103rbunelui cu gaz \u00een centralele existente), atunci o parte din produc\u021bie va fi absorbit\u0103 intern, iar impactul asupra pre\u021bului poate fi mai mic. Dac\u0103 toate centralele pe gaze vor fi puse \u00een func\u021biune se estimeaz\u0103 o cre\u0219tere a consumului de cca 25% p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2030.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>dac\u0103 exporturile devin importante, pre\u021burile de referin\u021b\u0103 pentru export pot seta nivelul intern<\/strong> \u2013 dac\u0103 exportul prime\u0219te pre\u021bul mai mare, internul poate r\u0103m\u00e2ne la nivelurile impuse\/fixate sau concuren\u0163iale.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Politic\u0103 fiscal\u0103 \u0219i reglementare<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>taxele, redeven\u021bele, legisla\u021bia offshore<\/strong> \u0219i modul \u00een care este reglementat\u0103 pia\u021ba gazelor poate influen\u021ba costul final al gazului.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>dac\u0103 statul continu\u0103 s\u0103 impun\u0103 alte taxe sau taxe mai mari pe gazul offshore, costul pentru produc\u0103tor cre\u0219te, ceea ce poate men\u021bine pre\u021bul mai sus.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pia\u021ba global\u0103 \/ geopolitic\u0103<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>pre\u021burile gazului sunt influen\u021bate de factori interna\u021bionali: aprovizionare, pre\u021bul gazului natural lichefiat (LNG), politica energetic\u0103 a UE, etc. Chiar dac\u0103 costul local cu gazele este mic, dac\u0103 pre\u021bul de import este sus sau <strong>concuren\u021ba redus\u0103<\/strong>, pre\u021bul intern poate s\u0103 nu scad\u0103.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Impactul asupra consumatorului final<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>chiar dac\u0103 pre\u021bul en-gross scade, nu e automat ca pre\u021bul consumatorului final s\u0103 scad\u0103 \u00een m\u0103rime \u2014 <strong>reglement\u0103ri, taxe, tarife de transport \u0219i distribu\u021bie,<\/strong> pot reduce impactul.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere datele disponibile e&nbsp;plauzibil&nbsp;ca, dup\u0103 \u00eenceputul produc\u021biei \u00een proiectul Neptun Deep (\u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 2027), <strong>s\u0103 apar\u0103 o&nbsp;presiune descendent\u0103&nbsp;asupra pre\u021bului gazului \u00een Rom\u00e2nia<\/strong> \u2014 mai ales pe partea de ofert\u0103 intern\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pia\u021ba gazelor nu func\u021bioneaz\u0103 dup\u0103 logica simpl\u0103 a abunden\u021bei. Gazul extras din Marea Neagr\u0103 nu va fi rezervat exclusiv consumatorilor rom\u00e2ni \u0219i nici nu va fi v\u00e2ndut la un pre\u021b \u201epatriotic\u201d. El va intra \u00eentr-o pia\u021b\u0103 european\u0103 integrat\u0103, unde produc\u0103torii urm\u0103resc, firesc, cel mai bun pre\u021b disponibil. Dac\u0103 Bulgaria, Ungaria sau alte pie\u021be regionale ofer\u0103 un pre\u021b mai mare, gazul va merge acolo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mai mult, Rom\u00e2nia se preg\u0103te\u0219te s\u0103 consume mai mult gaz, nu mai pu\u021bin. Noile centrale electrice pe gaze construite pentru \u00eenlocuirea c\u0103rbunelui vor absorbi volume importante din produc\u021bia suplimentar\u0103. Estim\u0103rile arat\u0103 c\u0103 cererea intern\u0103 ar putea cre\u0219te cu aproximativ 25% p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2030. Cu alte cuvinte, o bun\u0103 parte din surplusul promis este deja \u201ev\u00e2ndut\u201d \u00eenainte s\u0103 fie extras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exist\u0103 apoi problema pe care politicienii o ignor\u0103 constant: pre\u021bul gazului reprezint\u0103 doar o parte din factura pl\u0103tit\u0103 de consumator. Tarifele de transport \u0219i distribu\u021bie cresc, taxele se modific\u0103, iar costurile impuse prin reglement\u0103ri devin tot mai importante. Chiar dac\u0103 gazul ca marf\u0103 se ieftine\u0219te, factura final\u0103 poate r\u0103m\u00e2ne la acela\u0219i nivel sau chiar poate cre\u0219te.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"691\" src=\"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii-1024x691.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6996\" srcset=\"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii-1024x691.png 1024w, https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii-768x519.png 768w, https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii-18x12.png 18w, https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii-150x101.png 150w, https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii-450x304.png 450w, https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/scenarii.png 1170w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Modelele economice realizate pentru perioada 2027-2030 indic\u0103 trei scenarii posibile. \u00cen scenariul optimist, pre\u021bul angro al gazului ar putea cobor\u00ee spre 27-32 euro\/MWh dup\u0103 intrarea \u00een produc\u021bie a Neptun Deep. Pre\u021bul final pl\u0103tit de gospod\u0103rii ar putea ajunge \u00een jurul valorii de 280 lei\/MWh, adic\u0103 aproximativ cu 10% mai mic dec\u00e2t pre\u021bul plafonat pentru popula\u021bie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Scenariu 2030<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Pre\u021b mediu estimat de AEI pentru consumator final<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Optimist<\/td><td>280-300 lei\/MWh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>De baz\u0103<\/td><td>320-340 lei\/MWh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pesimist<\/td><td>350-380 lei\/MWh<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aceasta este realitatea pe care discursul public o evit\u0103. Gazele din Marea Neagr\u0103 nu garanteaz\u0103 facturi mult mai mici. Ele ofer\u0103 Rom\u00e2niei mai mult\u0103 siguran\u021b\u0103 energetic\u0103, reduc dependen\u021ba de importuri \u0219i pot genera venituri importante pentru economie \u0219i bugetul Rom\u00e2niei. Dar \u00eentre avantajul strategic \u0219i beneficiul direct pentru consumator exist\u0103 o distan\u021b\u0103 uria\u0219\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adev\u0103rata \u00eentrebare nu este dac\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia va extrage gaze din Marea Neagr\u0103. Adev\u0103rata \u00eentrebare este cine va beneficia de valoarea creat\u0103 de aceste resurse: consumatorii, economia rom\u00e2neasc\u0103 sau doar bugetul statului \u0219i companiile str\u0103ine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dac\u0103 statul va continua s\u0103 trateze energia ca pe o surs\u0103 de taxe \u0219i venituri suplimentare, rom\u00e2nii ar putea descoperi \u00een 2028 c\u0103 tr\u0103iesc \u00eentr-o \u021bar\u0103 care produce mai mult gaz ca niciodat\u0103, dar \u00een care facturile nu sunt cu mult mai mici. Iar atunci promisiunea \u201egazelor ieftine din Marea Neagr\u0103\u201d va intra \u00een aceea\u0219i categorie cu multe alte promisiuni energetice, bune pentru campanii electorale, dar f\u0103r\u0103 leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu realitatea din buzunarul consumatorului.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>E plauzibil ca, dup\u0103 \u00eenceputul produc\u021biei \u00een proiectul Neptun Deep (\u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 2027), s\u0103 apar\u0103 o presiune descendent\u0103 asupra pre\u021bului gazului \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u2014 mai ales pe partea de costuri \u015fi ofert\u0103 intern\u0103. Totu\u015fi, nu este garantat c\u0103 pre\u0163ul consumatorului final (gospod\u0103rie) va sc\u0103dea\u2013 depinde de foarte mul\u021bi factori (cerere, reglementare, infrastructur\u0103, taxare, pre\u0163uri de<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6998,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[21],"class_list":["post-6995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-energie","tag-trending"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"E plauzibil ca, dup\u0103 \u00eenceputul produc\u021biei \u00een proiectul Neptun Deep (\u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 2027), s\u0103 apar\u0103 o presiune descendent\u0103 asupra pre\u021bului gazului \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u2014 mai ales pe partea de costuri \u015fi ofert\u0103 intern\u0103.\" \/>\n\t<meta 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