{"id":7449,"date":"2026-06-25T14:29:30","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:29:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/?p=7449"},"modified":"2026-06-25T14:29:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:29:30","slug":"in-scenariul-de-baza-mintia-ar-putea-reduce-pretul-pzu-cu-5-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/en\/in-scenariul-de-baza-mintia-ar-putea-reduce-pretul-pzu-cu-5-10\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cen scenariul de baz\u0103, Mintia ar putea reduce pre\u021bul PZU cu 5-10%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Primul megawatt produs de noua central\u0103 pe gaze de la Mintia a fost injectat \u00een Sistemul Energetic Na\u021bional (SEN), marc\u00e2nd un moment simbolic dup\u0103 aproximativ cinci ani de la oprirea fostei termocentrale pe c\u0103rbune, sus\u021bine Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI), \u00een cadrul unei noi analize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Noua central\u0103 pe gaze de la Mintia este, probabil, cel mai important proiect energetic al Rom\u00e2niei din ultimii ani. Investi\u021bia, estimat\u0103 la aproximativ 1,2\u20131,4 miliarde euro, aduce \u00een Sistemul Energetic Na\u021bional circa 1.700 MW noi, \u00eentr-o configura\u021bie de ciclu combinat gaz-abur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tehnic, centrala nu trebuie privit\u0103 ca \u201edou\u0103 grupuri de 550 MW\u201d, ci ca o central\u0103 CCGT \u00een configura\u021bie 2+1, dou\u0103 turbine cu gaz mari, fiecare de 550 MW, dou\u0103 cazane recuperatoare \u0219i o turbin\u0103 cu abur comun\u0103 de 600 MW. Puterea total\u0103 ajunge astfel la 1.700 MW, \u00een func\u021bie de condi\u021biile tehnice \u0219i de regimul de operare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mintia nu este mare. Este foarte mare. Sistemul Energetic Na\u021bional are nevoie de o central\u0103 care s\u0103 func\u021bioneze multe ore pe an sau Rom\u00e2nia are nevoie de flexibilitate, echilibrare \u0219i capacitatea de a produce exact \u00een orele scumpe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rom\u00e2nia are un sistem energetic mixt, nuclear, hidro, gaz, c\u0103rbune \u00een retragere, eolian \u0219i fotovoltaic \u00een cre\u0219tere rapid\u0103. \u00cen anii recen\u021bi, problema nu a fost doar lipsa capacit\u0103\u021bii instalate, ci lipsa capacit\u0103\u021bii disponibile exact \u00een orele critice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avem ore \u00een care produc\u021bia hidro, nuclear\u0103 \u0219i regenerabil\u0103 acoper\u0103 mare parte din consum. Dar avem \u0219i ore de sear\u0103, iarn\u0103, secet\u0103 sau v\u00e2nt slab \u00een care Rom\u00e2nia import\u0103 energie la pre\u021buri ridicate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aici intr\u0103 Mintia. Centrala poate acoperi rapid un gol mare de produc\u021bie, mai ales \u00een orele \u00een care fotovoltaicul dispare, hidro este limitat, iar importurile sunt scumpe. Dar dimensiunea grupurilor este \u0219i avantaj, \u0219i problem\u0103. Un grup de 550 MW nu este o baterie, nu este hidro \u0219i nu este o central\u0103 mic\u0103 de reglaj. Poate fi flexibil pentru o unitate CCGT modern\u0103, dar tot r\u0103m\u00e2ne o ma\u0219in\u0103rie industrial\u0103 mare. Nu va porni \u0219i opri economic pentru orice dezechilibru minor din sistem. De aceea, ipoteza unei func\u021bion\u0103ri de 7.000\u20138.000 ore\/an pare prea optimist\u0103 \u00eentr-un sistem cu tot mai mult solar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Costul marginal, cheia impactului asupra pre\u021bului. Pre\u021bul pe pia\u021ba spot este dat, \u00een multe intervale, de ultima tehnologie necesar\u0103 pentru acoperirea cererii. Dac\u0103 ultimul MWh vine din import scump sau dintr-o central\u0103 pe gaz mai veche, pre\u021bul este ridicat. Dac\u0103 Mintia intr\u0103 \u00een locul acelei surse, poate reduce pre\u021bul marginal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dar Mintia nu va reduce toate pre\u021burile. Nu poate concura cu fotovoltaicul la pr\u00e2nz, c\u00e2nd pre\u021bul marginal al solarului este aproape zero. Nu poate concura cu hidro ieftin \u00een perioade bogate \u00een ap\u0103. Nu poate concura cu nuclearul \u00een band\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mintia va influen\u021ba mai ales orele de diminea\u021b\u0103, orele de sear\u0103, zilele de iarn\u0103, perioadele cu v\u00e2nt slab, perioadele cu importuri scumpe si situa\u021biile de stres \u00een sistem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Deci efectul nu va fi \u201epre\u021buri mici permanent\u201d, ci mai degrab\u0103 \u201emai pu\u021bine v\u00e2rfuri extreme de pre\u021b\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La 1.700 MW instala\u021bi, produc\u021bia anual\u0103 depinde enorm de num\u0103rul de ore echivalente de func\u021bionare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Astfel:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2.000 ore\/an \u00eenseamn\u0103 circa 3,4 TWh\/an;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3.000 ore\/an \u00eenseamn\u0103 circa 5,1 TWh\/an;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4.000 ore\/an \u00eenseamn\u0103 circa 6,8 TWh\/an;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5.000 ore\/an \u00eenseamn\u0103 circa 8,5 TWh\/an;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 6.000 ore\/an \u00eenseamn\u0103 circa 10,2 TWh\/an;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7.000 ore\/an \u00eenseamn\u0103 circa 11,9 TWh\/an.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Capacitatea teoretic\u0103 de aproape 12 TWh\/an presupune un factor de utilizare foarte ridicat, de peste 75\u201380%. Acest lucru ar fi posibil doar dac\u0103 gazul este competitiv, cererea regional\u0103 este mare, interconexiunile permit export \u0219i regenerabilele nu comprim\u0103 prea mult pre\u021burile \u00een timpul zilei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scenariul de baz\u0103 &#8211; 4.000\u20135.000 ore\/an. Cel mai probabil scenariu pentru perioada 2028\u20132030 este ca Mintia s\u0103 func\u021bioneze \u00eentre 4.000 \u0219i 5.000 ore\/an. Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 o produc\u021bie anual\u0103 de aproximativ 6,8\u20138,5 TWh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00cen acest scenariu, centrala nu merge permanent \u00een band\u0103. Func\u021bioneaz\u0103 mult iarna, seara \u0219i \u00een perioade de deficit regional. Vara, \u00een zilele cu produc\u021bie solar\u0103 mare, poate fi redus\u0103 sau chiar oprit\u0103 \u00een anumite intervale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Asta ar reducere pre\u021bul mediu PZU fa\u021b\u0103 de scenariul f\u0103r\u0103 Mintia cu cca 5\u201310%; reducere semnificativ\u0103 a importurilor \u00een orele scumpe, sc\u0103dere a num\u0103rului de ore cu pre\u021buri extreme, cre\u0219tere a siguran\u021bei \u00een alimentare, presiune economic\u0103 pe centralele mai vechi \u0219i mai ineficiente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Acesta este scenariul cel mai echilibrat. Mintia devine important\u0103, dar nu domin\u0103 pia\u021ba \u00een fiecare or\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scenariul optimist &#8211; 5.500\u20137.000 ore\/an. Acest scenariu presupune trei condi\u021bii favorabile, gaz competitiv, inclusiv din Marea Neagr\u0103 \u0219i mai ales suficient \u00een orice moment (!!!), interconexiuni suficiente pentru export si cerere regional\u0103 ridicat\u0103 \u00een Ungaria, Serbia, Bulgaria \u0219i Balcani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00cen acest caz, Mintia poate produce 9\u201312 TWh\/an. Rom\u00e2nia ar putea deveni exportator net \u00een multe intervale, iar centrala ar concura nu doar \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, ci regional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apreciem c\u0103 vor exista pre\u021buri medii cu 10\u201315% mai mici dec\u00e2t \u00een scenariul f\u0103r\u0103 Mintia, reducere puternic\u0103 a importurilor, exporturi mai mari \u00een orele de deficit regional si cre\u0219terea rolului Rom\u00e2niei ca Pol energetic european.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Totu\u0219i, acest scenariu are o probabilitate mai redus\u0103, pentru c\u0103 fotovoltaicul \u0219i bateriile cresc rapid. Cu c\u00e2t apar mai mul\u021bi MW solari \u0219i mai multe baterii, cu at\u00e2t o central\u0103 mare pe gaz are mai pu\u021bine ore foarte profitabile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scenariul restrictiv &#8211; 2.000\u20133.000 ore\/an. Mintia este foarte mare, iar sistemul va avea tot mai multe regenerabile \u0219i baterii. \u00cen acest caz, centrala nu mai este folosit\u0103 ca produc\u0103tor de energie de baz\u0103, ci ca produc\u0103tor de siguran\u021b\u0103. Func\u021bioneaz\u0103 mai ales iarna, seara, \u00een episoadele f\u0103r\u0103 v\u00e2nt, c\u00e2nd hidro este slab, c\u00e2nd importurile sunt scumpe, pentru servicii de sistem etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Produc\u021bia anual\u0103 ar putea fi de 3,4\u20135,1 TWh, iar impactul estimat este ca are efect redus asupra pre\u021bului mediu anual, dar un efect important asupra pre\u021burilor de v\u00e2rf si venituri mai mari din flexibilitate, capacitate \u0219i servicii de sistem. Probabil recuperarea investi\u021biei este mai dificil\u0103 doar din v\u00e2nzarea energiei pe PZU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00cen acest scenariu, Mintia nu este neimportant\u0103. Din contr\u0103, devine o central\u0103 de securitate energetic\u0103. Dar economic, nu ar mai fi o central\u0103 care c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 din volum mare de energie, ci din valoarea orelor rare \u0219i scumpe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Centrala Mintia are dou\u0103 turbine de peste 550 MW fiecare sunt excelente pentru randament, dar mai dificile pentru reglaj fin. \u00centr-un sistem cu mult solar, diferen\u021ba dintre pr\u00e2nz \u0219i sear\u0103 poate deveni brutal\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exemplu simplificat:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; la ora 13:00, Rom\u00e2nia poate avea mult fotovoltaic \u0219i pre\u021b mic;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; la ora 19:00, solarul dispare, consumul r\u0103m\u00e2ne mare, iar pre\u021bul cre\u0219te;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Mintia devine util\u0103 exact \u00een aceast\u0103 ramp\u0103 de sear\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dar dac\u0103 pre\u021bul este mic timp de 6\u20138 ore pe zi, centrala trebuie s\u0103 decid\u0103 dac\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne pornit\u0103 la sarcin\u0103 redus\u0103 sau se opre\u0219te. Aici apar costurile de pornire, limitele tehnice, contractele de gaz, costul dezechilibrelor pe pia\u021ba de gaze \u0219i strategia de ofertare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">De aceea, bateriile devin esen\u021biale. Dac\u0103 investitorul dezvolt\u0103 \u0219i capacit\u0103\u021bi mari de stocare, combina\u021bia gaz + baterii poate fi mult mai profitabil\u0103 dec\u00e2t centrala singur\u0103. Bateriile pot absorbi energie ieftin\u0103 la pr\u00e2nz \u0219i pot livra seara, \u00een timp ce Mintia acoper\u0103 perioadele mai lungi de deficit. Dezvoltatorul a anun\u021bat \u0219i inten\u021bia unor investi\u021bii masive \u00een baterii, de ordinul a 2.500 MW \u00een mai multe loca\u021bii, inclusiv la Mintia. Asta sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219i investitorul se a\u0219teapt\u0103 ca flexibilitatea \u0219i serviciile de sistem s\u0103 devin\u0103 esen\u021biale pentru monetizarea centralei \u00eentr-un sistem cu multe regenerabile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mintia va reduce importurile \u00een orele \u00een care Rom\u00e2nia cump\u0103r\u0103 energie scump\u0103 din regiune. Dar nu va elimina complet importurile. Importurile depind de pre\u021bul regional, produc\u021bia hidro, disponibilitatea nuclear\u0103, produc\u021bia eolian\u0103, consumul intern, capacitatea de interconexiune si pre\u021bul gazului. Dac\u0103 Ungaria sau Serbia au pre\u021buri mai mici \u00eentr-o anumit\u0103 or\u0103, Rom\u00e2nia poate importa chiar dac\u0103 Mintia exist\u0103. Pia\u021ba nu func\u021bioneaz\u0103 patriotic, ci economic. Centrala va produce c\u00e2nd pre\u021bul pie\u021bei acoper\u0103 costul marginal \u0219i costurile opera\u021bionale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumatorul final nu va vedea automat o sc\u0103dere egal\u0103 cu reducerea de pe PZU. Factura include energie activ\u0103, tarife de transport, distribu\u021bie, taxe, contribu\u021bii, marja furnizorului, mecanisme de sprijin sau plafonare, dac\u0103 exist\u0103. Mintia poate reduce componenta de energie \u00een anumite perioade, dar nu poate controla toat\u0103 factura.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cel mai realist efect este sc\u0103dere a pre\u021burilor angro \u00een orele scumpe, volatilitate mai mic\u0103, risc mai mic de crize de aprovizionare si presiune descendent\u0103 asupra contractelor pe termen mediu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In concluzie Mintia va ajuta Sistemul Energetic Na\u021bional, dar nu va transforma automat Rom\u00e2nia \u00eentr-o pia\u021b\u0103 cu energie ieftin\u0103 permanent. Centrala este foarte valoroas\u0103 pentru securitate, pentru reducerea importurilor scumpe \u0219i pentru acoperirea v\u00e2rfurilor de consum. Totu\u0219i, \u00eentr-un sistem cu tot mai mult fotovoltaic, eolian \u0219i baterii, este pu\u021bin probabil s\u0103 func\u021bioneze constant ca o termocentral\u0103 clasic\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Estimarea AEI este ca punere \u00een func\u021biune va fi treptat\u0103 (2026\u20132027), cu o produc\u021bie par\u021bial\u0103 si o func\u021bionare de 4.000\u20135.000 ore\/an (2028\u20132030), cu o produc\u021bie probabil\u0103 de 7\u20139 TWh\/an. Impactul pe pre\u021bul mediu va fi o sc\u0103dere de 5\u201310% fa\u021b\u0103 de scenariul f\u0103r\u0103 Mintia, dar cu un impact mare pe v\u00e2rfuri de pre\u021b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mintia nu va ieftini energia \u00een toate orele, dar va reduce riscul ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 cumpere scump exact c\u00e2nd are cea mai mare nevoie de energie. Valoarea ei real\u0103 nu va fi doar \u00een MWh produ\u0219i, ci \u00een MWh produ\u0219i la momentul potrivit.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Primul megawatt produs de noua central\u0103 pe gaze de la Mintia a fost injectat \u00een Sistemul Energetic Na\u021bional (SEN), marc\u00e2nd un moment simbolic dup\u0103 aproximativ cinci ani de la oprirea fostei termocentrale pe c\u0103rbune, sus\u021bine Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI), \u00een cadrul unei noi analize. Noua central\u0103 pe gaze de la Mintia este,<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-energie"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.4 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Noua central\u0103 pe gaze de la Mintia este, probabil, cel mai important proiect energetic al Rom\u00e2niei din ultimii ani. Investi\u021bia, estimat\u0103 la aproximativ 1,2\u20131,4 miliarde euro, aduce \u00een Sistemul Energetic Na\u021bional circa 1.700 MW noi, \u00eentr-o configura\u021bie de ciclu combinat gaz-abur.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andreea Ionescu\"\/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/industrynews.ro\/en\/in-scenariul-de-baza-mintia-ar-putea-reduce-pretul-pzu-cu-5-10\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 5.0.4\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"industrynews.ro - Industry News este o platform\u0103 de \u0219tiri dedicat\u0103 promov\u0103rii ini\u021biativelor antreprenoriale, investi\u021biilor \u0219i companiilor care contribuie la dezvoltarea mediului de afaceri din Rom\u00e2nia.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00cen scenariul de baz\u0103, Mintia ar putea reduce pre\u021bul PZU cu 5-10% - industrynews.ro\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Noua central\u0103 pe gaze de la Mintia este, probabil, cel mai important proiect energetic al Rom\u00e2niei din ultimii ani. 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