The four years since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine have meant for Romania an economic seism marked by high inflation, budgetary pressures and major energy costs, but also a strategic repositioning, which has transformed the country into a logistical and energy hub in Eastern Europe, said economic consultant Adrian Negrescu.
„For Romania, the four years since the fateful moment of February 2022 have meant a real prolonged economic earthquake, amplified by the dependence on energy sources, similar to what happened in other European countries, perhaps the best example being Germany. Looking back, these years have been a paradoxical mixture of costly vulnerabilities and forced development opportunities, transforming Romania from a peripheral actor into a logistical and energy hub of Eastern Europe, but at the price of major financial sacrifices for the population and the state budget”, said Adrian Negrescu, according to Agerpres.
According to him, the biggest problem was inflation, caused by soaring energy prices.
„The energy sector has undoubtedly been the scene of the most spectacular transformations. The war forced Romania to sharply accelerate its decoupling from Russian imports and to reassess its own resources. These four years marked the transition from uncertainty to a pillar of regional energy security”added the economic consultant.
Thus, gas and electricity prices were extremely volatile at the beginning, generating huge costs for the industry and the need for budget-busting cap-and-trade schemes, Negrescu said.
„The war in Ukraine acted as a catalyst for the price explosion, initially through panic and disruption of supply chains, and later through structural costs of energy and raw materials. Problems we have not escaped even now. And the best proof is the extension of the administered price for methane gas until April 1, 2027, a measure announced by Prime Minister Bolojan”says Negrescu.
In his view, the conflict has acted as a „hidden tax” on people's incomes, eroding purchasing power and changing consumption behavior.
„In all these years, Romanians' purchasing power has been severely affected, with wage increases being canceled out by food and utility prices. Although inflation promises to moderate in 2026 (the government will budget on an average inflation of 41TPTP3T), the problems caused in particular by last year's energy price hike of over 701TPTP3T continue to be felt. Essentially, the war in Ukraine has acted as a hidden tax on household incomes, changing consumption behavior: Romanians have become more cautious, turning to essential products and postponing major purchases. Beyond the negative effects, the energy shock had a beneficial long-term effect: it unlocked projects in the Black Sea (Neptun Deep) and spurred massive investment in renewables. Romanians now produce more wind and solar power than the Cernavodă power plant”he added.
Beyond the energy sector, while the private sector has adapted, the state budget has taken successive blows, Negrescu points out.
„The budgetary cost of the war was colossal, both directly and indirectly. Defense spending has risen significantly above estimates. Added to this were the humanitarian costs of managing refugee flows and, above all, the billions of lei pumped into offsetting energy bills and supporting affected sectors such as agriculture. All of this has deepened the budget deficit, keeping it constantly at distress levels, and has made public debt financing more expensive. The financial markets initially perceived Romania as being in a risk area, raising the interest rates at which the state borrowed, which put long-term pressure on public finances”, explained the economic consultant.
In his opinion, the good news is that the proximity to the frontline has not driven away foreign capital, on the contrary. Thus, after an initial period of hesitation, Romania has benefited from the phenomenon of „friend-shoring” and „nearshoring”.
„Investors have sought NATO stability, withdrawing from Russia and Ukraine and relocating production capacities to safe neighboring countries. Moreover, the defense industry has undergone a forced renaissance, attracting strategic partnerships and technology. While country risk has not completely disappeared from the analysis, it has been counterbalanced by the need for logistics and relative political stability, making Romania an attractive destination for capital aimed at rebuilding Ukraine. What is more, the blockade of Ukrainian ports has turned the Port of Constanta into the most important Black Sea trade gateway, with volumes of goods transited reaching historic records”explained Adrian Negrescu.
This huge pressure has therefore forced the authorities in Bucharest to come out of lethargy and speed up infrastructure construction.
„Moldova's A7 motorway and the upgrading of railways to the northern and eastern borders have become zero-grade strategic priorities, heavily financed by EU funds. Romania has become a vital node in the transport corridors linking Ukraine to the rest of the world, a position that will provide economic benefits long after the hostilities have ended”said Negrescu.
Romania is currently facing a historic opportunity to become the logistical platform for the reconstruction process in Ukraine, a deal valued at over 1.4 trillion dollars, the specialist believes.
„It remains to prove that we are able to exploit this opportunity. Through public-private partnerships, legislation favorable to industrial parks and tax-free zones, it is vital to attract foreign capital that will certainly be interested in Ukraine's business”, the analyst added.
According to him, in these four years Romania's economy has learned some fundamental lessons.
„The first is that transportation infrastructure is not just an economic fad, but a matter of national security; the absence of highways has been costly in terms of military and commercial logistics. The second lesson is that energy dependence on a single supplier is an existential vulnerability, and diversification of sources is worth any initial price. Last but not least, Romania has understood that its membership of NATO and the EU is not only a guarantee of security, but also its most important economic asset, the anchor that has prevented financial collapse in the face of a border war”added Adrian Negrescu.
According to him, the Romanian economy has emerged from this period more indebted and with higher prices, but structurally more robust, more connected and strategically much more relevant on the map of Europe.