Lukoil's withdrawal from the Trident offshore project in the Black Sea is more than a corporate decision, it is an x-ray of the strategic vulnerabilities and delays accumulated in the Romanian energy sector, says the president of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), Dumitru Chisăliță, according to Agrepres.
According to him, the invocation of force majeure in the context of Western sanctions underlines the difficulty of building energy security on geopolitically risky foundations and underlines the need for a quick decision on the future of the perimeter.
„Lukoil's withdrawal from the Trident project is not just a corporate move in an offshore perimeter. It is an x-ray of our energy vulnerabilities and the strategic backlogs accumulated over the last decade. When an investor invokes force majeure in a strategic project in the Black Sea, the problem is no longer just contractual. It becomes geopolitical, economic and, above all, European. Trident was, on paper, one of the potential pieces of the energy security puzzle for Romania and Europe. Nowhere near as advanced as Neptun Deep, but promising enough to count in a region trying to replace gas dependence with regional production. The irony? A project designed to reduce Europe's gas dependence on Russia ended up being blocked precisely because of sanctions against Russia”says the AEI president in the study published on Tuesday.
It points out that Lukoil's invocation of force majeure is essentially an acknowledgement that Western sanctions make it impossible to continue normal operations.
„Drilling services, financing, insurance - all become complicated or inaccessible. Legally, things can be discussed. Strategically, however, the message is clear - you cannot build energy security on unstable political foundations. Romania knew it was operating with a partner exposed to the risk of sanctions. It probably relied on economic pragmatism and the idea that commercial interests would prevail. The reality of recent years has proved the opposite”, stressed the specialist, according to Agerpres.
In his view, there are three possible courses of action: a prolonged stalemate, which would mean losing precious years; transferring the stake to a Western or regional player, acceptable from the perspective of sanctions; or Romgaz taking over the role of operator, with the attraction of a technical partner specialized in deepwater operations.
„The most realistic scenario is the second. International capital still sees the Black Sea as a relevant energy frontier. But investors will demand fiscal stability, predictability and legal clarity - exactly the areas where Romania has faltered for years. Doesn't it affect directly? In the short term, no. Trident was not producing gas, so it doesn't affect tomorrow's bill. But in the medium and long term, every year lost means: less domestic production, missed regional export opportunities, less geopolitical influence”says Chisăliță.
In a Europe looking for an alternative to Russian gas, Romania has a geological advantage, but this is not a political decision, the source said.
The AEI president says Lukoil's withdrawal is not just about sanctions, but that energy strategy cannot be built on improvisation and reaction.
„The Romanian statute must decide quickly: whether force majeure is accepted or contested; whether the perimeter is put out to retender and whether it actively supports a solution to replace the operator. More importantly, it must send a clear signal: strategic projects cannot remain for years in ambiguity”he added.
According to the specialist, Lukoil's withdrawal may also represent an opportunity.
„A repositioning of the project under a sanctions-free operator could make Trident more bankable than previously. In the current European context, Black Sea gas is no longer just a commodity, but a strategic opportunity for Romania to strengthen its position as a regional energy security pole. The real question is not whether Lukoil is leaving, but whether Romania knows how to turn this withdrawal into a new beginning”said Dumitru Chisăliță.