Lukoil's withdrawal from the Trident offshore project in the Black Sea is more than a corporate decision, it is an x-ray of the strategic vulnerabilities and delays accumulated in the Romanian energy sector, says the president of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), Dumitru Chisăliță, according to Agrepres.
According to him, the invocation of force majeure in the context of Western sanctions underlines the difficulty of building energy security on geopolitically risky foundations and underlines the need for a quick decision on the future of the perimeter.
„Lukoil's withdrawal from the Trident project is not just a corporate move in an offshore perimeter. It is an x-ray of our energy vulnerabilities and the strategic backlogs accumulated over the last decade. When an investor invokes force majeure in a strategic project in the Black Sea, the problem is no longer just contractual. It becomes geopolitical, economic and, above all, European. Trident was, on paper, one of the potential pieces of the energy security puzzle for Romania and Europe. Nowhere near as advanced as Neptun Deep, but promising enough to count in a region trying to replace gas dependence with regional production. The irony? A project designed to reduce Europe's gas dependence on Russia ended up being blocked precisely because of sanctions against Russia”says the AEI president in the study published on Tuesday.
It points out that Lukoil's invocation of force majeure is essentially an acknowledgement that Western sanctions make it impossible to continue normal operations.
„Servicii de foraj, finanțare, asigurări – toate devin complicate sau inaccesibile. Din punct de vedere juridic, lucruri pot fi discutate. Din punct de vedere strategic, însă, mesajul este clar nu puteți construi securitate energetică pe fundații instabile politice. România a știut că operează cu un partener expus riscului de sancțiuni. A mizat, probabil, pe pragmatism economic și pe ideea că interesele comerciale vor prevala. Realitatea ultimilor ani a demonstrat contrariul”, stressed the specialist, according to Agerpres.
In his view, there are three possible courses of action: a prolonged stalemate, which would mean losing precious years; transferring the stake to a Western or regional player, acceptable from the perspective of sanctions; or Romgaz taking over the role of operator, with the attraction of a technical partner specialized in deepwater operations.
„Cel mai realist scenariu este al doilea. Capitalul internațional încă vede Marea Neagră ca o frontieră energetică relevantă. Însă investitorii vor cere stabilitate fiscală, predictibilitate și claritate juridică – exact capitolele unde România a oscilat ani la rând. Nu afectează direct? Pe termen scurt, nu. Trident nu producea gaz, deci nu influențează factura de mâine. Pe termen mediu și lung, însă, fiecare an pierdut înseamnă: mai puțină producție internă, oportunități ratate de export regional, influență geopolitică diminuată”says Chisăliță.
In a Europe looking for an alternative to Russian gas, Romania has a geological advantage, but this is not a political decision, the source said.
The AEI president says Lukoil's withdrawal is not just about sanctions, but that energy strategy cannot be built on improvisation and reaction.
„The Romanian statute must decide quickly: whether force majeure is accepted or contested; whether the perimeter is put out to retender and whether it actively supports a solution to replace the operator. More importantly, it must send a clear signal: strategic projects cannot remain for years in ambiguity”he added.
According to the specialist, Lukoil's withdrawal may also represent an opportunity.
„A repositioning of the project under a sanctions-free operator could make Trident more bankable than previously. In the current European context, Black Sea gas is no longer just a commodity, but a strategic opportunity for Romania to strengthen its position as a regional energy security pole. The real question is not whether Lukoil is leaving, but whether Romania knows how to turn this withdrawal into a new beginning”said Dumitru Chisăliță.
