Global oil production fell by 10.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March to 97 million bpd due to the war in the Middle East, marking the largest drop in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported, warning that losses will be even greater in April, EFE reported.
In its monthly oil market report, published Tuesday, the IEA indicated that production losses in March, caused by the conflict that erupted on February 28th with American and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, totaled over 360 million barrels, but this figure will rise to 440 million barrels in April.
In early April, the near-total blockade imposed by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz meant that only 3.8 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products were leaving the strait, compared to over 20 million barrels per day in February, before the hostilities began. Additionally, even though some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq, have opened alternative routes to export some of their hydrocarbons outside the Strait of Hormuz, the decrease in oil exports exceeds 13 million barrels per day and must be partially compensated for by the use of dwindling reserves.
Regarding demand, the IEA has drastically revised its forecasts downward for this year and estimates that, in 2026, global oil consumption should average 104.26 million barrels per day (mb/d), compared to 104.34 mb/d in 2025.
“Global oil demand is now expected to fall by an average of 80,000 barrels per day in 2026,” the IEA stated, a decrease from its March report, which had forecast an increase of 730,000 barrels per day, according to Agerpres.
In the second quarter, consumption is expected to reach 102.07 million barrels per day (mb/d), representing an estimated decrease of 1.5 mb/d compared to the previous year, the sharpest drop since Covid-19 caused a sudden reduction in fuel consumption, according to the IEA, whose forecasts are updated monthly based on current economic conditions.
The IEA's Director, Fatih Birol, warned in Washington on Monday that “April should be worse than March” for the energy sector, even if a solution to the war is found, because while in March the market could be supplied by tankers that had been loaded in the Persian Gulf before the outbreak of the conflict, this cannot happen now.
“This is the most significant energy crisis in history,” warned Birol, who emphasized that the situation affects “oil and natural gas, but also other essential commodities such as fertilizers, petrochemicals, and helium.”.
The International Energy Agency is the principal energy advisory body for 29 of the world’s most developed countries. The organization was established in response to the 1973-1974 oil crisis to coordinate the release of oil from stock reserves.