Banca Transilvania economists forecast an economic growth of 1.67% of GDP for Romania's economy in 2026, based on five structural factors, namely national and European investments, industrial recovery, ICT strength, moderate stabilization of consumption and better external balance.
„Essentially, 2026 is expected to be the year in which Romania's investment-led growth model will become more visible, with the potential to improve both medium-term productivity and economic resilience”, explains Ioan Nistor, chief economist at Banca Transilvania, in the report sent to investors, quoted by Coursesgovernment.
Inflation (CPI) is projected to fall significantly, ending 2026 at 4.3%, down from nearly 10% at the end of 2025. The decline is expected especially in the second half of the year, as „inflation is expected to remain elevated in early 2026 and to fall more noticeably only in the second half of the year”. A key role is also played by the „moderate stabilization of consumption, thanks to declining inflation and a gradual recovery in real incomes”.
In monetary policy, the NBR is expected to maintain its restrictive stance, with „the first rate cut most likely only in the second half of the year, once there is clear and sustainable evidence that inflation is firmly on a downward trajectory”. The monetary policy rate is forecast to fall „gradually towards 5.75% by the end of 2026” from 6.50%.
The leu/euro exchange rate is projected to record a slight and stable depreciation of the leu, ending 2026 at around 5.17, compared to 5.10 at the end of 2025.
