The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 upward to 5.51% from the previous 3.91%, and expects it to reach 2.91% by the end of 2027, according to data presented Tuesday by BNR Governor Mugur Isărescu.
„Regarding the forecast, there are two things we need to tell you. You see, when it comes to economic growth—based on the data from two weeks ago, when this report was compiled, and the May inflation report—we are projecting significantly lower growth at the European Union level in 2027. I read this morning what the Commissioner for the Economy said, that there will be further downward revisions to this year’s economic growth forecast. And as for inflation, it is higher. He also said yesterday—I read it this morning—that he will revise the inflation figure as well. So it probably won’t be 2.71%, maybe it will be 3.1% or over 3.1%. In fact, the inflation figure of 3.81% was released in the U.S. two days ago, and in the U.K., 3.1%. So the impact of the Hormuz inflation is quite significant. This is our revised forecast, which has been discussed in several meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. We are seeing mild inflationary pressures, which have intensified. We were actually hesitant to include this in our press release a few days ago, but we are telling the truth. The idea that the National Bank is forecasting rising inflation has gained traction, when in fact the following sentence was clear: inflation is falling by half, from nearly 11% to approximately 5%. The fact that it will rise in May and June by 0.1–0.3 percentage points has been exaggerated in the public sphere. It will rise through July, probably to 11%, but the increases are small, because then, in July, August, and September, we will already have inflation of approximately 6%, and toward the end of the year, 5% and a bit”," said Mugur Isărescu, according to Agerpres.
He mentioned that the forecast is based on currently available data. The Governor of the National Bank of Romania also specified that the projections are strictly conditioned by assumptions regarding the implications of the conflict in the Middle East and the return to a minimum of political and governmental stability, respectively the existence of a government.
„It is possible that inflation will rise in Europe as well, though not necessarily to 5.51%. Finally, we may no longer be the inflation champions come fall. We hope this will be the case, but it doesn’t depend solely on us”, Isărescu also stated.