The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index fell significantly in March, dropping by 10.2 points to 38.2 points, a decline indicating a deterioration in financial analysts' perceptions of both economic prospects and the current situation.
According to an organization statement, the expectations component decreased by 10.5 points (to 40.7 points), and the current conditions component fell by 9.5 points (to a value of 33.3 points).
„In the context of the oil crisis and global risk aversion on international markets, inflationary expectations have increased, as have expectations of nominal interest rate hikes (which are closely linked to both the evolution of inflationary expectations and the evolution of risk aversion). Also, expectations for economic growth for the current year have declined.” Adrian Codirlașu, president of CFA Romania Association, stated.
The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2027) increased by 1.72 percentage points compared to the previous month's value, reaching 7.61%, and 47%of participants anticipate an increase in the inflation rate in the next 12 months compared to its present value, while 37% anticipate a decrease.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 86% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, and 14% anticipate stagnation. Thus, the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.1303 lei for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the expected EURO/RON exchange rate is 5.1644 lei for one euro.
The poll is conducted monthly by the Romanian CFA Society, for over 14 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization aims to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month, and participants are members of the Romanian CFA Society and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator ranges from 0 (lack of confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding: current conditions - relating to the business environment and labor market; expectations for a one-year time horizon for: the business environment, the labor market, the evolution of personal income at the economy level, and the evolution of personal wealth at the economy level.