In Romania, battery-electricity is growing rapidly, with about 1 GWh installed in 2025 and 2 GWh expected in 2026. At the same time, nuclear and pumped hydropower are developing at a pace far too slow to compete with BESS systems in the next five years, says a study by TDP Partners, consulted by Industrynews.
”Investors developing stand-alone battery energy storage projects this year are targeting an internal rate of return on equity of around 18%, assuming a financing structure with a leverage ratio of 50% and a cost of debt of 6%”say TDP Partners analysts.
”Under our baseline assumptions, the minimum internal rate of return accepted for equity capital by investors by 2030 could converge to around 12%, corresponding to a project internal rate of return of around 10%. This estimate assumes a financing structure with a leverage ratio of 50%, a conservative level for the Romanian market, and a cost of debt of around 6%”say experts.
”It is also expected that from 2027 there will be a structural change in the BESS market as storage systems progressively move from average duration current two-hour to four-hour configurations. This transition reflects the increasingly important role of storage in ensuring system flexibility rather than pure short-term arbitrage”.
Analysts also say that the Romanian market could reach a peak BESS capacity of around 11 GWh, which could be reached around 2030. Beyond this horizon, assuming moderate growth in electricity consumption, the market should move towards a more balanced supply structure. Several large generation projects are expected to compete for market space, including at least 3 GW of offshore wind capacity, 1 GW of pumped hydro storage at Tarnița or equivalent, 0.45 GW of SMR nuclear capacity at Doicești and 1.4 GW represented by units 3 and 4 of the Cernavodă nuclear power plant.
At the same time, some 3 GW of gas-fired electricity currently under construction or already in operation, together with an additional 1.5 GW expected to enter the system, will also compete for acceptable returns. This competition may become increasingly relevant given that gas prices are not expected to fall significantly, which will put additional pressure on the ability of thermal assets to maintain their targeted IRR levels.