On Friday, the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) reconfirmed Romania's country rating at BBB (foreign currency) and BBB+ (local currency) and upgraded the outlook from „negative” to „stable”, the Ministry of Finance reports.
„The JCR's announcement is encouraging and demonstrates once again that the necessary measures adopted in 2025 to balance public finances and reduce the budget deficit are in line with our country's medium-term commitments. At the same time, the Agency's communication is also a message of confidence for Japanese investors, at a time when Romania, through the Ministry of Finance, intends to be a frequent issuer on the Samurai bond market in Japan, in order to diversify its investment base”, said the minister in charge, Alexandru Nazare, quoted in a press release issued by the Ministry of Finance on Friday.
In the report, JCR highlights the success of the fiscal packages implemented in 2025, which put the deficit on a downward trajectory. The government deficit narrowed from 8.7% in 2024 to 7.7% in 2025.
For 2026, the measures taken, which include taxing dividends, controlling wage spending and freezing social benefits, are estimated to reduce the deficit to 6.2% of GDP. Although public debt reached 59.6% of GDP at the end of 2025, JCR expects it to stabilize as the deficit falls, remaining at a relatively low level compared to other similarly rated countries.
A central element of the JCR report emphasizes the importance of the link between European funding and domestic reforms. The agency notes that while economic growth has slowed to 0.7% in 2025 due to inflation and a contraction in private consumption, it is expected to rebound to 1% in 2026. This momentum will be underpinned by an increase in capital investment financed by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which matures this year, and an improvement in net exports amid falling imports.
„For fiscal consolidation in the medium to long term, the JCR considers that it will be essential for the government to maintain net expenditure growth, defined as a benchmark for fiscal management, within the level recommended by the EU Council in July 2025. The Agency is closely monitoring steady progress in meeting the numerous milestones related to the structural reforms required to receive RRF grants. This path is considered vital for the gradual recovery of private consumption and the return of economic growth to the 2% threshold over the medium term, once the effects of the fiscal adjustment measures are fully absorbed by the economy”, reads the press release.
The JCR report also confirms the stability of the Romanian financial system, according to MF. The banking sector has maintained a robust financial position despite the volatile macroeconomic environment, thus providing a solid basis for the implementation of consolidation policies and maintaining the confidence of foreign investors.