The real problem with the 2026 budget is the interest on loans, with this year's public borrowing bill of around €30 billion, says economic consultant Adrian Negrescu.
He explained, in context, that although interest rates are falling, they are being applied to a larger stock of public debt and the government is being forced to roll over old loans at new, higher costs than five or six years ago.
„The real problem with the 2026 budget, however, is interest rates on loans. Lending rates have fallen in international markets from 8-9% to an average of 6-7%. However, the absolute amount paid by Romania to banks is rising significantly. In addition, this paradox is generated by the fact that the new interest rates, although lower in percentage terms, are applied to a much larger stock of public debt than in previous years. Moreover, the government is forced to roll over old loans at new costs, much higher than five or six years ago. In 2026, the public borrowing bill is around €30 billion,” he wrote on his Facebook page, according to Agerpres.
On the other hand, Negrescu argues that, beyond the acute need for reforms, the budget law demonstrates that a real reduction in spending, especially on the administrative apparatus, is tantamount to a political cost that the parties are not willing to really assume.
„The state's total expenditure is increasing by about 56 billion lei compared to the previous financial year. Where is this money going? At first glance, it looks like administrative waste. But it's not. First of all, some 23 billion lei comes directly from EU funds. This money is immediately reflected in both revenue and expenditure on major infrastructure investments. The willingness to attract PNRR funds by the summer is a clear positive signal. If we take the European funds out of the calculation, we are left with an additional bill of 33 billion lei”, explained the economic consultant, pointing out that this money is strictly the Romanian state's operating expenses.
Spending on goods and services purchased by institutions is up by 5 billion lei and this 5 percent increase is still below the forecast inflation rate, indicating a slight moderation in public procurement, Negrescu said.
Another chapter that has stirred up lively public debate is that of spending on budgetary personnel, which is up by 500 million lei. On the one hand, the state is making savings estimated at 1.6 billion lei in the first six months through layoffs and reorganizations in local public administration. On the other hand, these savings will be almost completely canceled as of July 2026, warns the cited source.
„Then the increase in the minimum wage will come into force, a measure that we have repeatedly criticized as playing a purely inflationary role. This decision taken by politicians will automatically raise the entire pay scale in the public sector, generating huge costs at the end of the year,” the economist points out.
Going further, Adrian Negrescu believes that the rest of the budget maintains an extremely conservative line.
He recalls that subsidies receive an additional allocation of more than one billion lei, and this fund is often used as a quick safety net when grievances arise in key economic sectors.
The chapter dedicated to social assistance remains constant, with no spectacular cuts or increases to unbalance the system.
„Essentially, we are witnessing a more realistic budget than last year's, which we have said on countless occasions was a science fiction construction, which took into account unreal revenues such as the 10 billion from digitalization and which was based on the premise of an illusory economic growth of 2.5%. All in all, in 2026 we have a relatively optimistic draft budget that assumes an economic growth of 1%. It remains to be seen whether all the estimates of state revenues and economic growth will be confirmed by reality,” the economic consultant added.
The draft budget for 2026 is built on a deficit estimated at 6.2% of GDP, or 127.7 billion lei, a level that would fall to 5.1% of GDP in 2027, according to the document published on Tuesday by the Finance Ministry.
Gross Domestic Product is estimated to grow by 1%, to 2.045 billion lei in 2026.