Fuel prices could rise in Romania by 0.5 cents to 4.5 lei per liter, depending on the severity of a possible regional crisis, with diesel fuel at the forefront of the price increases, says Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
Amid geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and around the world, Romania could see new fuel price hikes in the coming months. Market analyses show that diesel remains much more exposed than gasoline because of its high dependence on imports and its strategic role in transport, agriculture and industry. According to estimates, prices could rise by 0.5 to 4.5 lei per liter, depending on the severity of a possible regional crisis, with diesel at the forefront of the price hike. In a situation with regional tensions, additional sanctions or minor transport difficulties, gasoline could rise by between 0.50 and 1.25 lei per liter and diesel by between 0.60 and 1.50 lei per liter. Even if this scenario would not be severe, the impact would be immediate, especially on diesel, where demand remains steady even in a difficult economic context
says Chisăliță, in an analysis quoted by Agerpres.
If there are logistical bottlenecks, export restrictions or disruptions in the Black Sea area, the effects would be much more pronounced, he says. Petrol could rise by 1.25-2.25 lei/liter and diesel by 1.75-3 lei/liter.
„The transportation industry would quickly feel the pressure and the additional costs would be passed on to end consumers. In an extreme scenario - the outbreak of a widespread conflict, broad embargoes or a simultaneous energy crisis in the region - pump prices could rise dramatically. Gasoline would rise by 2 to 3.25 lei/liter, while diesel could add 3 to 4.5 lei/liter to the current price. In this case, diesel would clearly exceed the 10 lei/liter threshold, and in extreme cases it could even reach 12 lei/liter, if there is no government intervention,” says AEI president.
In the expert's view, prices in Romania are also influenced by refineries in Bulgaria and Greece, both exposed to tensions in the Black Sea region.
„Thus, various studies point out that diesel is 40-80% more sensitive than gasoline to external shocks. Relative to current prices - 7.74 lei/liter for gasoline and 8.0 lei/liter for diesel - the estimates indicate three possible levels of impact: realistic minimum +0.5 - +1.2 lei/liter, medium impact +1.2 - +2.5 lei/liter, severe impact (Eastern Europe in crisis) +3 - +4.5 lei/liter, especially for diesel. In other words, even in a situation without dramatic escalations, drivers will feel additional pressure at the pump,” notes Dumitru Chisăliță.