Iran has presented the United States with a 14-point proposal to definitively end the war, focusing on the lifting of the naval blockade, non-aggression guarantees, the withdrawal of U.S. forces, and the lifting of sanctions. Given that these proposals are difficult for the U.S. to accept, the Strait will most likely remain blocked, according to Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI).
In this situation, the forecast made by Trading Economics – which indicates a possible leap to $110/barrel in Q2 2026, $116/barrel in Q3 2026, $120 in Q4, and $124 in Q1 2027 – is not just a technical estimate. It's a wake-up call. Because, beyond the numbers, it speaks of a paradigm shift: energy is returning to the center of global tensions, states the analyst.
Between the forecast and reality, we have a market split in two. On the one hand, such estimates suggest a tight market, where supply becomes fragile and geopolitical risks dominate. Current data already show an upward trend, with oil exceeding the $105/barrel mark in 2026, and macro models indicate values of over $110 in the short term. .
On the other hand, there is a clear divergence in forecasts. Institutions like the Energy Information Administration even anticipate a drop to $76/barrel in 2027, and J.P. Morgan sees prices around $60. .
This discrepancy is not an error – it's the essence of the oil market, a precarious balance between two opposing forces.
Expensive gasoline is no longer an anomaly, but a scenario. If the „Trading Economics” scenario materializes, it will not be the result of explosive demand, but of constrained supply. The conflict in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks could push prices as high as $120 in extreme scenarios, according to recent analyses. .
Furthermore, international institutions warn that disruptions in the region can lead to significant price increases and a slowdown in the global economy. In other words, expensive oil is not about economic growth, but about risk.
Europe remains the great vulnerable. For Europe, including Romania, the implications are direct and uncomfortable: persistent inflation (energy + transport), pressure on industrial costs, and economic stagnation in energy-intensive sectors.
”Economies dependent on energy imports become the first victims of a $120 per barrel oil price. And the effects are not linear: they are transmitted in a chain – from fuel to food.
The question isn't whether oil will reach $120 or drop to $60. The real question is: Which geopolitical scenario will dominate? If tensions persist, then the „Trading Economics” scenario becomes plausible, and if supply increases and conflicts subside, then „bearish” scenarios gain ground.
The reality is that the oil market is no longer determined solely by economics, but by geopolitics.
A forecast of over $120/barrel is not just „worrying.” It's symbolic. It marks the return of oil as a tool of global power. The 2010s were dominated by oversupply and technology. The 2020s are dominated by conflict and uncertainty.
And between these two worlds, the consumer—be it the state or the citizen—remains the one who pays the bill,” the analyst states.
