The inflationary pressures generated by the conflict in Iran are expected to be reflected in interest rate developments in the coming months, said economic analyst Dragoș Cabat on Wednesday, at the launch of the study ROBOR and IRCC: mechanisms, perceptions, and economic realities.
„Expectations are forming now, because the war in Iran is, after all, a recent development—it’s not new. And so there is currently clear pressure on inflation, which we are already seeing in Eastern European countries. They’ve all been hit pretty hard; they now have inflation above 5%, some above 6%, and we’re almost at 11%—needless to say. So, through inflation, this will immediately feed into interest rates. Now, regarding the transmission period—and we had a brief discussion here—what is this transmission period? There are many opinions. My personal view is that the transmission mechanism is sometimes even shorter, lasting 3–6 months. So I would go with 3–6 months. Basically, we should look at interest rate expectations in the coming months, starting now—if we look at the 6-month and 12-month ROBOR rates—to see if they incorporate this information about the war in Iran. What’s the issue here with these expectations? That we don’t know whether they’ll materialize in the long term or not.” said Dragoș Cabat, a member of the CFA Board of Directors and co-founder of Cabat&Pah Investments, according to Agerpres.
He explained that in this case we could have different developments in a very short period of time, namely that at the end of the day we could have breaking news that the war in Iran has ended, or conversely, that one of the countries there has escalated and is attacking the Iranians again.
CFA Romania Association launched on Wednesday the study „ROBOR and IRCC: Mechanisms, Perceptions, and Economic Realities,” an analysis document dedicated to the main mechanisms that determine the evolution of interest rates in Romania and how they influence the economy, borrowing costs, and financial stability.
The study was conducted in the context of public debates in recent years regarding the evolution of ROBOR, IRCC, and the cost of financing for the population and companies. The document aims to contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between inflation, monetary policy, liquidity in the banking system, the exchange rate, and the benchmark indicators used in loan contracts.
The analysis highlights that interest rates in the economy are the result of market mechanisms and reflect the evolution of inflation, monetary policy, investor expectations, and the perception of risk in the Romanian economy. At the same time, the study explains the differences between ROBOR and IRCC, their calculation methods, and the role of the money market in the transmission of monetary policy.
„In recent years, ROBOR and IRCC have become intensely debated topics in the public sphere, but often without sufficient economic context. Through this study, we aim to explain, in accessible language, how interest rate formation mechanisms work and their connection to inflation, monetary policy, and macroeconomic balances. We believe that better financial education contributes to more informed economic decisions and a more balanced public dialogue.”," said Alexandra Smedoiu, CFA, vice president of the CFA Romania Association.
Also, she explained that the study was not carried out in the context of the investigation conducted by the Competition Council.
„We said at the beginning, we've been working on this study for a long time, and it comes in the context where we've been talking about very high interest rates for a year or two, and we always have this question of why interest rates are high and why they will decrease. I don't think we can interpret it in any other way, in any case. The study is about market mechanisms and is intended to be a timeless study. So if we open this study in 10 years, we believe it will still be relevant. We haven't looked at such factors.”," stated Alexandra Smedoiu.
Printre concluziile principale ale studiului: dobânzile ridicate reprezintă consecința dezechilibrelor macroeconomice și a inflației ridicate, nu un fenomen independent; ROBOR și IRCC reflectă aceeași piață monetară, însă prin metodologii și mecanisme de ajustare diferite; politica monetară a BNR se transmite direct în costul creditării prin intermediul pieței interbancare; lichiditatea din sistemul bancar influențează direct nivelul ratelor de dobândă; șocurile externe din ultimii ani – criza energetică, războiul din Ucraina și tensiunile geopolitice – au avut un impact major asupra inflației și dobânzilor; stabilitatea fiscală și reducerea riscului macroeconomic sunt esențiale pentru reducerea sustenabilă a dobânzilor în economie.
The study aims to support a public dialogue based on economic realities, transparency, and financial education, in a context where understanding the functioning mechanisms of financial markets is becoming increasingly important for both the population and the economic environment. The full document will be available starting May 20, 2026, on the financial education website. www.generatiaindependenta.ro.
