Analysts at Frames warn that, against the backdrop of the effects of the Middle East war and the liberalization of the gas market, core inflation could increase significantly compared to initial estimates.
„It is not excluded that April could bring an inflation of over 10%, four times the EU average, and that this indicator will remain in double digits for at least 3 months from now.”, show the Frames analysis.
The National Bank of Romania maintains an extremely prudent stance, given that external shocks and the budget deficit continue to exert huge pressure on shelf prices.
The week of financial suffering
According to analysts, this climate of economic uncertainty is radically changing how people shop.
The budget allocated for the holidays is now being calculated down to the last penny. Experts are observing a clear shift towards thoughtful purchases and a renunciation of past years' extravagances.
„Consumers will, of course, not give up the traditional meal, but they are implementing clear financial survival strategies. We are seeing a massive trend towards supermarket private label products, which are cheaper. At the same time, there is a drastic reduction in purchase volumes. This Easter, sales will most likely be below last year's.” declared Adrian Negrescu, Frames manager.
People now prefer to buy strictly a small casserole of lamb or a single slice, instead of purchasing half a carcass, as they traditionally did. Quantity makes way for necessity. The Romanian consumer has become much more attentive to promotions and prefers to visit several stores to find the best price on basic ingredients.
„We are in a real financial Passion Week, where the rush for promotions has turned into a true national sport. The Easter table will be largely defined by discount campaigns and offers announced by major retailers.”shows the analysis.
Although there are also minor exceptions in the price chart, such as radishes which recorded a price drop of 5.5%, these isolated price reductions cannot balance the scales.
The price drop of seasonal greens does not compensate in any way for the gap left by the massive price increases for meat, sweets, and eggs. The minimum Easter basket thus becomes a real burden for low and middle-income individuals, completely redefining the concept of holiday in Romanian families.
„On average, a family of 4 will need a budget of 1000 or even 1500 lei for a traditional Easter meal that includes lamb, cozonac, pasca, other culinary specialties, alcoholic beverages, and, of course, Easter Bunny gifts. For the vast majority of the population, this budget will be impossible to allocate given the higher costs of daily life, from utilities to gas and electricity, etc.” , Negrescu also declared.
The data analyzed by the consulting firm Frames regarding the price dynamics of holiday products were collected by the National Institute of Statistics, and the comparison covers the months of February 2025 – February 2026. The estimates regarding price increases during this period and post-holidays belong to Frames experts and should be viewed as a directional indicator, not as a commercial forecast.
Farmers are blaming the high prices of animal feed and the increased electricity costs required for industrial halls. To this are added increasingly strict European sanitary norms and recurring outbreaks of avian influenza that have severely affected bird populations on the continent. All these disrupted or more expensive supply chains are directly reflected in the prices at the counter.
”The CPI data only show a snapshot at the February level. The significant increase in fuel prices and the rise in gas prices, starting April 1st, will bring a new wave of price increases after Easter, at the beginning of May.I am the manager of Frames.
