Benchmark gas prices in Europe rose by 40% on Tuesday midday, hitting the highest level since 2023 to date, amid uncertainty over the duration of the shutdown of the world's largest liquefied gas export facility in Qatar and its effects on global energy supplies, Bloomberg reports.
At around 12:09 p.m., at the TTF gas hub in Amsterdam, where European benchmark prices are set, natural gas futures quotes were up 40% to €62.10 per Megawatt-hour (MWh), according to Agerpres.
It's the second day in a row of rising gas futures after China, the world's biggest importer of liquefied gas, urged all parties involved in the conflict in Iran to allow safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Bloomberg, executives of Chinese gas companies have revealed that Beijing is pressuring Iranian officials to avoid actions that would disrupt gas exports from Qatar.
The Ras Laffan facility in Qatar, which is responsible for one-fifth of the world's liquefied gas supply, was shut down on Monday after an Iranian drone strike. On Tuesday, production in some downstream segments was also halted. Even before these decisions, the escalating Middle East war had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for Qatar.
In total, since the close of Friday's trading session so far, European gas prices have risen by around 90%, a volatility not seen since the 2022 energy crisis. Europe enters the last part of winter with depleted gas storage and will have to compete with other buyers to replenish inventories ahead of the coming season.
Despite the increases in recent days, benchmark prices are still far from the record highs reached during the energy crisis, when they topped €300 per megawatt-hour. Still, the situation threatens Europe's ability to replenish its gas stocks, as potential competition with other regions for liquefied gas widens price differentials.
”We expect substantial price volatility in the coming days as market participants assess the impact of production losses on their own supply portfolios. The buyers who will be most aggressive in near-term spot purchases are likely to be those in Asia-Pacific markets,” said Ross Wyeno, director at S&P Global Energy.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts have raised their forecast for gas prices in Europe for April 2026 to €55 per megawatt-hour from €36 per megawatt-hour in April 2026. As most of Qatar's liquefied gas goes to Asia, analysts expect Asian spot prices to rise in line with European prices.
