The military crisis in the Middle East is starting to have a visible impact on the Romanian business environment, even if companies' direct trade links with the region are limited.
A survey of 1,436 entrepreneurs conducted by IMM Romania between March 9-19, 2026, on a sample of 1,436 entrepreneurs, shows that the impact is mainly felt through higher costs and pressure on profitability, according to StartupCafe.
For entrepreneurs, the main effect of the conflict is the increase in fuel prices, indicated by 62.7% of respondents. This is followed by fears of accelerating inflation and reduced trade, while the impact on economic growth is perceived to be lower.
Even though almost 901TPTP3T of firms do not trade directly with the Persian Gulf region, indirect effects are considered inevitable throughout the economy.
At company level, the picture is dominated by rising costs. Practically three out of four entrepreneurs (75.8%) expect operating costs to rise, making this indicator the most relevant alarm bell in the survey.
Nearly half of respondents also expect goods and services to become more expensive, while more than a quarter expect to cut investment.
At the same time, there are additional pressures related to financing, sourcing and deliveries, even if only a very small percentage of firms believe they will not be affected.
The knock-on effect of higher fuel prices is directly reflected in the profitability of firms. Most entrepreneurs anticipate a fall in profits as costs rise, but also a loss of competitiveness.
At the same time, some companies expect sales volumes to fall, indicating a double pressure - on costs and revenues.
Two-thirds of entrepreneurs expect customers' purchasing power to fall and more than half expect raw material costs to rise.
In this context, declining sales and postponed investments become likely scenarios for a significant proportion of companies, while optimistic views are almost non-existent.
Faced with these developments, business is calling for state intervention. The most important measures requested by entrepreneurs are:
- temporary decrease in fuel excise duty (71,2%)
- excise compensation for transporters and agriculture (45,5%)
- facilitating access to credit through state guarantees (40,9%)
- energy price reduction (38,7%)
In the labor market, companies are taking a cautious approach. Most entrepreneurs say they will keep the current number of employees, but there is also a sizeable proportion who are considering layoffs, usually limited. At the same time, hiring intentions are very low, a sign that firms prefer to wait for the economic environment to change before taking expansion steps.
Overall, Romanian entrepreneurs see the crisis in the Middle East as a major risk factor, exacerbating existing problems in the economy.
